I want to use state space smoother in my model, but I have got the error message. my model is
data {
int<lower=1> T; //the number of sample
int<lower=1> K; //number of K years
matrix[11,T] y; //data2
real h;
vector[K] tau; // represent K different year
}
parameters {
//parameters for mu
vector<lower=0>[5] kappa;
vector[4] kappaq;
vector[5] mu;
vector<lower=0>[5] sigma;
vector<lower=0>[11] eps;
vector[5] aa[T];
real cr;
real ca;
real cg;
real gr;
}
transformed parameters{
//matrix[5,5] sigr=diag_matrix(sigma);
matrix[5,5] phi;
matrix[5,5] Q;
vector[5] Mu;
matrix[5,5] p0;
vector[5] a1;
matrix[5,5] p1;
matrix[5,5] P[T];
vector[5] a[T];
matrix[5,5] sP[T];
vector[5] sa[T];
matrix[11,5] C1;
matrix[5,4] C1a;
vector[K] Ca;
vector[K] Cg;
vector[11] C0;
matrix[11,T] my;
vector[11] yita;
matrix[11,11] f;
matrix[11,11] R = diag_matrix(2*log(eps));
for (i in 1:11){
for(j in 1:5){
C1[i,j] = 0;
}
}
for(i in 1:5){
for (j in 1:4){
C1a[i,j] = (1-exp(-kappaq[j]*tau[i]))/(kappaq[j]*tau[i]);
}
}
for (j in 1:K){
Ca[j]=(cr+ca) * tau[j] - sigma[1]^2 *(tau[j]-C1[j,1])/(2*kappaq[1]^2)+sigma[1]^2 *C1[j,1]^2/(4*kappaq[1])-
sigma[2]^2 *(tau[j]-C1[j,2])/(2*kappaq[2]^2)+sigma[2]^2 *C1[j,2]^2/(4*kappaq[2])-
sigma[3]^2 *(tau[j]-C1[j,3])/(2*kappaq[3]^2)+sigma[3]^2 *C1[j,3]^2/(4*kappaq[3]);
}
for(j in 1:K){
Cg[j]=(cr*gr+cg) * tau[j] - gr^2*sigma[1]^2 *(tau[j]-C1[j,1])/(2*kappaq[1]^2)+gr^2*sigma[1]^2 *C1[j,1]^2/(4*kappaq[1])-
gr^2*sigma[2]^2 *(tau[j]-C1[j,2])/(2*kappaq[2]^2)+gr^2*sigma[2]^2 *C1[j,2]^2/(4*kappaq[2])-
sigma[4]^2 *(tau[j]-C1[j,4])/(2*kappaq[4]^2)+sigma[4]^2 *C1[j,4]^2/(4*kappaq[4]);
}
C0[1]=cr;
C0[2:6]=Ca;
C0[7:11]=Cg;
C1[1,1] = 1;
C1[1,2] = 1;
C1[1,5] = 1;
for (i in 2:6){
for(j in 1:3){
C1[i,j] = C1a[i-1,j];
}
}
for (i in 1:5){
C1[i+6,1] = C1a[i,1]*gr;
C1[i+6,2] = C1a[i,2]*gr;
C1[i+6,4] = C1a[i,4];
}
phi = diag_matrix(exp(-(kappa)*h));
Q = diag_matrix(exp(2*log(sigma)).*(1-exp(-2*kappa*h))./(2*kappa));
p0 = diag_matrix(exp(2*log(sigma))./(2*kappa));
Mu = (diag_matrix(rep_vector(1,5))-phi) *mu;
a1 = Mu + phi*mu;
p1 = phi * p0 * phi';
for (i in 1:T) {
yita = y[,i] - C0 - C1 * a1;
f = C1 * p1 * C1' + R;
a[i] = a1 + p1 * C1' * inverse(f) * yita;
P[i] = p1 - p1 * C1' * inverse(f) * C1 * p1;
a1 = Mu + phi * a[i];
p1 = phi * P[i] * phi' + Q;
}
sa[T] = a[T];
sP[T] = P[T];
for (j in (T-1):1) {
sa[j] = a[j] + P[j] * phi' * inverse(phi * P[j] * phi' +Q) * (aa[j+1] - Mu - phi * a[j]);
sP[j] = P[j] - P[j] * phi' * inverse(phi * P[j] * phi'+ Q) * phi * P[j];
}
for (t in 1:T){
my[,t] = C0 +C1*aa[t];
}
}
model {
kappa~normal(0,5);
kappaq~normal(0,5);
mu ~normal(0,5);
sigma ~normal(0,1);
for (t in 1:T){
aa[t] ~ multi_normal_cholesky(sa[t],cholesky_decompose(0.5*(sP[t]+sP[t]')));
y[,t] ~ multi_normal_cholesky(my[,t],diag_matrix(eps));
}
}
And the wrong messages are:
Chain 1: Rejecting initial value:
Chain 1: Error evaluating the log probability at the initial value.
Chain 1: Exception: cholesky_decompose: m is not symmetric. m[1,2] = nan, but m[2,1] = nan (in ‘string’, line 126, column 4 to column 80)
I have no idea to solve this problem.
some suggestions?