World Cup model

there is a version of Andrew’s world cup model updated for the 2019 FIFA Women’s world cup available here:

Github repo with models and data

one thing which Bob pointed out while I was working on this is that the model is a variant of the Bradley-Terry model used infer team abilities where each team has an estimated ability modeled as the expected number* of goals that they will score per game. The difference between team abilities predicts who will win the match.
(*number of goals is modeled as a continuous value, which isn’t correct)

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