#===================================================================== # sd_y = 0.08, mu_u1 = y_LT = 0.1; mu_alpha = 0.04; beta = 0.6 # theta = 0.15; rho = 1, # sd_base = 0.2; mu_base = -1.6 # sd_season = 0.1, mu_season = c(-0.12, -0.06, 0.15) # s = c(0.4, 0.15, 0.15) # p = c(0.7, 0.62, 0.68); p = c(0.7, 0.62, 0.35) [inv_logit()]; p = c(0.72, 0.42) #p[3]=0.7 # g = c(0.85, 0.35) #old: g = c(0.2, 0.2, 0.25) # w = c(0.72, 0.15, 0.62) # d = c(0.05, 0.7, 0.25) #===================================================================== # In folder: 20190626.093412_6083881 [75,150,35,1,3412,600,200,0.82,11,diag_e,4,J90c]" #===================================================================== Inference for Stan model: SSM0_5_2b_model 4 chains: each with iter=(200,200,200,200); warmup=(600,600,600,600); thin=(1,1,1,1); 3200 iterations saved. Warmup took (12330, 10330, 11082, 9646) seconds, 12.1 hours total Sampling took (3692, 3446, 3728, 3743) seconds, 4.06 hours total Mean MCSE StdDev 5% 50% 95% N_Eff N_Eff/s R_hat lp__ 1.87e+04 7.79e-01 1.34e+01 1.86e+04 1.87e+04 1.87e+04 2.96e+02 2.03e-02 1.01e+00 accept_stat__ 9.12e-01 3.68e-03 1.12e-01 6.59e-01 9.60e-01 1.00e+00 9.31e+02 6.37e-02 1.00e+00 stepsize__ 5.35e-03 3.57e-04 5.06e-04 4.77e-03 5.56e-03 6.07e-03 2.01e+00 1.37e-04 5.06e+14 treedepth__ 9.90e+00 -nan 3.00e-01 9.00e+00 1.00e+01 1.00e+01 -nan -nan 1.20e+00 n_leapfrog__ 9.92e+02 -nan 1.22e+02 5.11e+02 1.02e+03 1.02e+03 -nan -nan 1.10e+00 divergent__ 0.00e+00 -nan 0.00e+00 0.00e+00 0.00e+00 0.00e+00 -nan -nan -nan energy__ -1.85e+04 1.13e+00 1.88e+01 -1.85e+04 -1.85e+04 -1.85e+04 2.77e+02 1.90e-02 1.02e+00 sd_y 8.00e-02 1.72e-05 5.84e-04 7.91e-02 8.00e-02 8.10e-02 1.15e+03 7.88e-02 1.00e+00 mu_u1 9.17e-02 2.46e-04 8.98e-03 7.73e-02 9.17e-02 1.06e-01 1.33e+03 9.12e-02 9.99e-01 mu_alpha 3.86e-02 6.86e-05 2.02e-03 3.55e-02 3.86e-02 4.19e-02 8.69e+02 5.95e-02 9.98e-01 beta 6.05e-01 2.92e-04 7.74e-03 5.92e-01 6.05e-01 6.18e-01 7.00e+02 4.79e-02 9.99e-01 theta 1.47e-01 1.15e-04 3.26e-03 1.42e-01 1.47e-01 1.52e-01 8.02e+02 5.49e-02 9.98e-01 sd_season 9.65e-02 1.00e-04 4.45e-03 8.96e-02 9.64e-02 1.04e-01 1.98e+03 1.35e-01 9.98e-01 mu_season[1] -1.16e-01 2.83e-04 1.03e-02 -1.33e-01 -1.15e-01 -9.87e-02 1.33e+03 9.08e-02 1.00e+00 mu_season[2] -6.07e-02 2.92e-04 1.10e-02 -7.92e-02 -6.04e-02 -4.17e-02 1.43e+03 9.81e-02 9.96e-01 mu_season[3] 1.39e-01 2.57e-04 1.04e-02 1.22e-01 1.39e-01 1.55e-01 1.64e+03 1.12e-01 9.98e-01 p[1] 6.62e-01 1.91e-03 4.37e-02 6.04e-01 6.54e-01 7.51e-01 5.24e+02 3.59e-02 9.99e-01 p[2] 6.21e-01 1.65e-04 5.63e-03 6.12e-01 6.21e-01 6.31e-01 1.16e+03 7.96e-02 9.97e-01 p[3] 6.26e-01 2.74e-03 6.26e-02 5.45e-01 6.15e-01 7.53e-01 5.23e+02 3.58e-02 9.99e-01 g[1] 8.39e-01 1.45e-03 4.69e-02 7.66e-01 8.36e-01 9.17e-01 1.04e+03 7.12e-02 9.97e-01 g[2] 3.49e-01 7.02e-04 2.23e-02 3.14e-01 3.49e-01 3.86e-01 1.01e+03 6.89e-02 9.97e-01 w[1] 7.71e-01 2.20e-03 6.76e-02 6.56e-01 7.72e-01 8.82e-01 9.41e+02 6.44e-02 9.99e-01 w[2] 1.41e-01 3.50e-04 1.30e-02 1.20e-01 1.41e-01 1.63e-01 1.37e+03 9.41e-02 9.97e-01 w[3] 6.36e-01 5.32e-04 2.19e-02 6.00e-01 6.37e-01 6.71e-01 1.70e+03 1.16e-01 9.96e-01 d[1] 6.93e-02 3.27e-04 1.12e-02 5.07e-02 6.95e-02 8.73e-02 1.18e+03 8.05e-02 9.96e-01 d[2] 6.92e-01 2.79e-04 1.01e-02 6.75e-01 6.92e-01 7.09e-01 1.32e+03 9.05e-02 1.00e+00 d[3] 2.39e-01 2.97e-04 1.14e-02 2.20e-01 2.38e-01 2.58e-01 1.48e+03 1.01e-01 1.00e+00 Warning: non-fatal error reading adapation data Warning: non-fatal error reading adapation data Warning: non-fatal error reading adapation data Warning: non-fatal error reading adapation data