Started job at Tue Jun 4 23:51:40 EDT 2019 method = sample (Default) sample num_samples = 1000 (Default) num_warmup = 1000 (Default) save_warmup = 0 (Default) thin = 1 (Default) adapt engaged = 1 (Default) gamma = 0.050000000000000003 (Default) delta = 0.80000000000000004 (Default) kappa = 0.75 (Default) t0 = 10 (Default) init_buffer = 75 (Default) term_buffer = 50 (Default) window = 25 (Default) algorithm = hmc (Default) hmc engine = nuts (Default) nuts max_depth = 10 (Default) metric = dense_e metric_file = (Default) stepsize = 1 (Default) stepsize_jitter = 0 (Default) id = 2 data file = ../SSM_data.dat init = 2 (Default) random seed = 753737552 output file = samples2.csv diagnostic_file = (Default) refresh = 100 (Default) Gradient evaluation took 0.01 seconds 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 100 seconds. Adjust your expectations accordingly! Iteration: 1 / 2000 [ 0%] (Warmup) Iteration: 100 / 2000 [ 5%] (Warmup) Iteration: 200 / 2000 [ 10%] (Warmup) Iteration: 300 / 2000 [ 15%] (Warmup) Iteration: 400 / 2000 [ 20%] (Warmup) Iteration: 500 / 2000 [ 25%] (Warmup) Iteration: 600 / 2000 [ 30%] (Warmup) Iteration: 700 / 2000 [ 35%] (Warmup) Iteration: 800 / 2000 [ 40%] (Warmup) Iteration: 900 / 2000 [ 45%] (Warmup) Iteration: 1000 / 2000 [ 50%] (Warmup) Iteration: 1001 / 2000 [ 50%] (Sampling) Iteration: 1100 / 2000 [ 55%] (Sampling) Iteration: 1200 / 2000 [ 60%] (Sampling) Iteration: 1300 / 2000 [ 65%] (Sampling) Iteration: 1400 / 2000 [ 70%] (Sampling) Iteration: 1500 / 2000 [ 75%] (Sampling) Iteration: 1600 / 2000 [ 80%] (Sampling) Iteration: 1700 / 2000 [ 85%] (Sampling) Iteration: 1800 / 2000 [ 90%] (Sampling) Iteration: 1900 / 2000 [ 95%] (Sampling) Iteration: 2000 / 2000 [100%] (Sampling) Elapsed Time: 4799.65 seconds (Warm-up) 2156.71 seconds (Sampling) 6956.36 seconds (Total) Warning: non-fatal error reading adapation data Warning: non-fatal error reading samples Inference for Stan model: SSM0_5_2dev_model 4 chains: each with iter=(1000,1000,1000,1000); warmup=(0,0,0,0); thin=(1,1,1,1); 4000 iterations saved. Warmup took (3970, 4800, 3832, 4246) seconds, 4.7 hours total Sampling took (2429, 2157, 2654, 2068) seconds, 2.6 hours total Mean MCSE StdDev 5% 50% 95% N_Eff N_Eff/s R_hat lp__ 2.1e+04 3.7e-01 1.4e+01 2.1e+04 2.1e+04 2.1e+04 1.4e+03 1.5e-01 1.0e+00 accept_stat__ 9.0e-01 2.3e-02 1.8e-01 5.0e-01 9.7e-01 1.0e+00 6.4e+01 6.9e-03 1.0e+00 stepsize__ 6.7e-02 6.8e-03 9.6e-03 5.6e-02 6.9e-02 8.1e-02 2.0e+00 2.1e-04 5.8e+13 treedepth__ 7.0e+00 2.1e-02 3.5e-01 7.0e+00 7.0e+00 7.0e+00 3.0e+02 3.2e-02 1.0e+00 n_leapfrog__ 1.4e+02 7.9e+00 3.7e+01 1.3e+02 1.3e+02 2.6e+02 2.2e+01 2.4e-03 1.1e+00 sd_y 8.0e-02 8.7e-06 5.8e-04 7.9e-02 8.0e-02 8.1e-02 4.5e+03 4.9e-01 1.0e+00 mu_u1 1.1e-01 1.3e-04 8.8e-03 9.4e-02 1.1e-01 1.2e-01 4.7e+03 5.1e-01 1.0e+00 mu_alpha 4.2e-02 2.8e-05 1.7e-03 3.9e-02 4.2e-02 4.5e-02 3.9e+03 4.2e-01 1.0e+00 beta 5.9e-01 1.3e-04 7.8e-03 5.8e-01 5.9e-01 6.0e-01 3.4e+03 3.7e-01 1.0e+00 theta 1.6e-01 1.4e-04 8.8e-03 1.5e-01 1.6e-01 1.8e-01 3.8e+03 4.1e-01 1.0e+00 sd_season 9.9e-02 6.0e-05 4.0e-03 9.2e-02 9.8e-02 1.1e-01 4.4e+03 4.7e-01 1.0e+00 mu_season[1] -1.3e-01 1.5e-04 1.0e-02 -1.5e-01 -1.3e-01 -1.1e-01 4.5e+03 4.8e-01 1.0e+00 mu_season[2] -6.1e-02 1.7e-04 9.9e-03 -7.7e-02 -6.1e-02 -4.4e-02 3.2e+03 3.5e-01 1.0e+00 mu_season[3] 1.5e-01 1.6e-04 1.0e-02 1.3e-01 1.5e-01 1.7e-01 4.2e+03 4.5e-01 1.0e+00 p[1] 7.5e-01 1.1e-03 6.2e-02 6.8e-01 7.4e-01 8.7e-01 3.2e+03 3.4e-01 1.0e+00 p[2] 6.0e-01 5.5e-04 2.8e-02 5.6e-01 6.0e-01 6.5e-01 2.6e+03 2.8e-01 1.0e+00 p[3] 4.3e-01 1.6e-03 8.9e-02 3.2e-01 4.1e-01 6.0e-01 3.0e+03 3.3e-01 1.0e+00 g[1] 8.7e-01 7.3e-04 4.6e-02 7.9e-01 8.7e-01 9.4e-01 3.9e+03 4.1e-01 1.0e+00 g[2] 3.5e-01 3.5e-04 2.1e-02 3.2e-01 3.5e-01 3.9e-01 3.6e+03 3.8e-01 1.0e+00 w[1] 7.4e-01 1.2e-03 6.4e-02 6.3e-01 7.4e-01 8.4e-01 2.9e+03 3.1e-01 1.0e+00 w[2] 1.5e-01 1.9e-04 1.2e-02 1.3e-01 1.5e-01 1.7e-01 4.0e+03 4.3e-01 1.0e+00 w[3] 6.0e-01 3.0e-04 2.0e-02 5.7e-01 6.0e-01 6.4e-01 4.5e+03 4.8e-01 1.0e+00 d[1] 5.5e-02 1.8e-04 1.1e-02 3.7e-02 5.4e-02 7.3e-02 3.7e+03 4.0e-01 1.0e+00 d[2] 7.1e-01 1.5e-04 9.2e-03 6.9e-01 7.1e-01 7.2e-01 3.9e+03 4.2e-01 1.0e+00 d[3] 2.4e-01 1.7e-04 1.1e-02 2.2e-01 2.4e-01 2.6e-01 4.3e+03 4.6e-01 1.0e+00 Finished job at Wed Jun 5 01:52:20 EDT 2019