Started job at Wed Jun 5 18:32:38 EDT 2019 method = sample (Default) sample num_samples = 1000 (Default) num_warmup = 1000 (Default) save_warmup = 0 (Default) thin = 1 (Default) adapt engaged = 1 (Default) gamma = 0.050000000000000003 (Default) delta = 0.80000000000000004 (Default) kappa = 0.75 (Default) t0 = 10 (Default) init_buffer = 75 (Default) term_buffer = 50 (Default) window = 25 (Default) algorithm = hmc (Default) hmc engine = nuts (Default) nuts max_depth = 10 (Default) metric = diag_e (Default) metric_file = (Default) stepsize = 1 (Default) stepsize_jitter = 0 (Default) id = 3 data file = ../SSM_data.dat init = 2 (Default) random seed = 820994578 output file = 6067941/samples3.csv diagnostic_file = (Default) refresh = 100 (Default) Gradient evaluation took 0.02 seconds 1000 transitions using 10 leapfrog steps per transition would take 200 seconds. Adjust your expectations accordingly! Iteration: 1 / 2000 [ 0%] (Warmup) Iteration: 100 / 2000 [ 5%] (Warmup) Iteration: 200 / 2000 [ 10%] (Warmup) Iteration: 300 / 2000 [ 15%] (Warmup) Iteration: 400 / 2000 [ 20%] (Warmup) Iteration: 500 / 2000 [ 25%] (Warmup) Iteration: 600 / 2000 [ 30%] (Warmup) Iteration: 700 / 2000 [ 35%] (Warmup) Iteration: 800 / 2000 [ 40%] (Warmup) Iteration: 900 / 2000 [ 45%] (Warmup) Iteration: 1000 / 2000 [ 50%] (Warmup) Iteration: 1001 / 2000 [ 50%] (Sampling) Iteration: 1100 / 2000 [ 55%] (Sampling) Iteration: 1200 / 2000 [ 60%] (Sampling) Iteration: 1300 / 2000 [ 65%] (Sampling) Iteration: 1400 / 2000 [ 70%] (Sampling) Iteration: 1500 / 2000 [ 75%] (Sampling) Iteration: 1600 / 2000 [ 80%] (Sampling) Iteration: 1700 / 2000 [ 85%] (Sampling) Iteration: 1800 / 2000 [ 90%] (Sampling) Iteration: 1900 / 2000 [ 95%] (Sampling) Iteration: 2000 / 2000 [100%] (Sampling) Elapsed Time: 5587.46 seconds (Warm-up) 8456.98 seconds (Sampling) 14044.4 seconds (Total) Inference for Stan model: SSM0_5_2dev_model 4 chains: each with iter=(1000,1000,1000,1000); warmup=(0,0,0,0); thin=(1,1,1,1); 4000 iterations saved. Warmup took (5410, 4945, 5587, 5035) seconds, 5.8 hours total Sampling took (8488, 8918, 8457, 8686) seconds, 9.6 hours total Mean MCSE StdDev 5% 50% 95% N_Eff N_Eff/s R_hat lp__ 2.1e+04 3.9e-01 1.4e+01 2.1e+04 2.1e+04 2.1e+04 1.3e+03 3.7e-02 1.0e+00 accept_stat__ 9.5e-01 1.0e-03 6.6e-02 8.1e-01 9.8e-01 1.0e+00 4.4e+03 1.3e-01 1.0e+00 stepsize__ 1.1e-02 1.5e-04 2.1e-04 1.1e-02 1.1e-02 1.2e-02 2.0e+00 5.8e-05 9.3e+12 treedepth__ 8.9e+00 7.5e-03 2.3e-01 8.0e+00 9.0e+00 9.0e+00 9.3e+02 2.7e-02 1.0e+00 n_leapfrog__ 5.0e+02 7.8e-01 4.5e+01 5.1e+02 5.1e+02 5.1e+02 3.3e+03 9.5e-02 1.0e+00 divergent__ 0.0e+00 -nan 0.0e+00 0.0e+00 0.0e+00 0.0e+00 -nan -nan -nan energy__ -2.1e+04 5.5e-01 1.9e+01 -2.1e+04 -2.1e+04 -2.1e+04 1.2e+03 3.4e-02 1.0e+00 sd_y 8.0e-02 7.1e-06 5.8e-04 7.9e-02 8.0e-02 8.1e-02 6.6e+03 1.9e-01 1.0e+00 mu_u1 1.1e-01 9.9e-05 8.9e-03 9.3e-02 1.1e-01 1.2e-01 8.1e+03 2.3e-01 1.0e+00 mu_alpha 4.2e-02 2.8e-05 1.8e-03 3.9e-02 4.2e-02 4.5e-02 4.2e+03 1.2e-01 1.0e+00 beta 5.9e-01 1.3e-04 8.0e-03 5.8e-01 5.9e-01 6.0e-01 3.9e+03 1.1e-01 1.0e+00 theta 1.6e-01 1.2e-04 9.1e-03 1.5e-01 1.6e-01 1.8e-01 6.1e+03 1.8e-01 1.0e+00 sd_season 9.9e-02 4.9e-05 4.3e-03 9.2e-02 9.8e-02 1.1e-01 7.6e+03 2.2e-01 1.0e+00 mu_season[1] -1.3e-01 1.1e-04 9.8e-03 -1.5e-01 -1.3e-01 -1.1e-01 8.0e+03 2.3e-01 1.0e+00 mu_season[2] -6.1e-02 1.0e-04 9.8e-03 -7.7e-02 -6.1e-02 -4.5e-02 9.5e+03 2.7e-01 1.0e+00 mu_season[3] 1.5e-01 1.1e-04 1.0e-02 1.4e-01 1.5e-01 1.7e-01 8.9e+03 2.6e-01 1.0e+00 p[1] 7.5e-01 1.2e-03 6.2e-02 6.8e-01 7.4e-01 8.7e-01 2.5e+03 7.3e-02 1.0e+00 p[2] 6.0e-01 2.9e-04 2.7e-02 5.6e-01 6.0e-01 6.4e-01 8.4e+03 2.4e-01 1.0e+00 p[3] 4.3e-01 1.8e-03 8.9e-02 3.3e-01 4.1e-01 6.0e-01 2.5e+03 7.3e-02 1.0e+00 g[1] 8.7e-01 5.8e-04 4.5e-02 8.0e-01 8.7e-01 9.4e-01 6.1e+03 1.8e-01 1.0e+00 g[2] 3.5e-01 2.4e-04 2.0e-02 3.2e-01 3.5e-01 3.9e-01 7.1e+03 2.0e-01 1.0e+00 w[1] 7.4e-01 7.9e-04 6.4e-02 6.4e-01 7.4e-01 8.4e-01 6.5e+03 1.9e-01 1.0e+00 w[2] 1.5e-01 1.5e-04 1.2e-02 1.3e-01 1.5e-01 1.7e-01 7.3e+03 2.1e-01 1.0e+00 w[3] 6.0e-01 2.4e-04 2.1e-02 5.7e-01 6.0e-01 6.4e-01 7.0e+03 2.0e-01 1.0e+00 d[1] 5.5e-02 1.4e-04 1.1e-02 3.7e-02 5.5e-02 7.2e-02 6.0e+03 1.7e-01 1.0e+00 d[2] 7.1e-01 1.3e-04 9.3e-03 6.9e-01 7.0e-01 7.2e-01 4.9e+03 1.4e-01 1.0e+00 d[3] 2.4e-01 1.2e-04 1.1e-02 2.2e-01 2.4e-01 2.6e-01 8.1e+03 2.3e-01 1.0e+00 Finished job at Wed Jun 5 22:30:55 EDT 2019